Housing Market Performed Well Despite Challenges in 2024
Housing market experts with the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), provided insight and predictions during its 2024 Year End Conference.
Naples, Fla. (March 4, 2025) – Housing market experts with the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®), which tracks home listings and sales within Collier County (excluding Marco Island), provided insight and predictions during its annual Year End Conference at the Naples Conference Center on Friday, February 28, 2025. Over 200 NABOR® members and inquiring citizens tuned in either in-person or via Zoom to better understand the Naples housing market during 2024 and to gain perspective of the market’s potential in 2025. The 2024 Year End Conference slides and video are available on NABOR.com.
The event kicked off with opening remarks by NABOR® President Terrilynn VanGorder, Broker Associate, John R. Wood Properties, who promised even more clarity about data on the housing market heading into 2025. The panel was moderated by Adam Vellano, Managing Director of South and Southwest Florida at Compass Florida; and included Mike Hughes, Vice President and General Manager for Downing-Frye Realty, Inc; Jillian Young, President, Premiere Plus Realty; Dr. H. Shelton Weeks, Lucas Professor of Real Estate and Director of the Lucas Institute for Real Estate Development & Finance at Florida Gulf Coast University; and Budge Huskey, CEO, Premier Sotheby’s International Realty.
Panelist Mike Hughes summed up 2024 as a year with seven significant challenges facing REALTORS®, and homeowners and buyers. The challenges: insurance, interest rates, the election, inflation, anti-trust suits, hurricanes, and educating the public on new buyer-broker agreements.
“Despite the challenges, we had strong numbers to report,” said Hughes, whose panel presentation focused on pending sales during 2024. “We were only off 2 percent compared to pending sales in 2019 [pre-pandemic].” There were 10,345 pending sales reported in 2019 compared to 10,090 pending sales in 2024. However, pending sales decreased 7.5 percent compared to 10,912 pending sales in 2023.
Jillian Young presented on closed sales during 2024 and said, “The data showed we were recovering from pandemic extremes, and I suspect we will continue to see activity that reflects a return to more normal patterns into 2025.”
She added, “The key difference between other recovery years like 2015/16 and today is that closed sales represent more property value.” For year-ending 2016, the median closed price was $307,000 compared to $610,000 in year-ending 2024.
“Any month’s reported closed sales reflect work that began at least three months prior so, despite circumstances like lower-promised interest rates, three hurricanes barreling up the west coast, and a heated presidential election, closed sales during the second half of 2024 were actually quite impressive,” said Young. There were 7,966 closed sales reported in 2024 compared to 8,622 closed sales reported in 2023.
Young also pointed out a transformation taking place in Naples, “Closed sales of homes over $2 million increased 13.4 percent in 2024, while markets like east Naples experienced an 18.7 percent decline. Naples is not simply one market type, but a bunch of micro markets that require guided experience from a professional.”
Dr. Shelton Weeks, who leads a team of economists at FGCU, kicked off his presentation by stating that he “is not worried about the upward pressure on inventory going into 2025. When you think about what the market had to go through [the seven challenges], it’s surprising we are in the situation we are with inventory. From a market participant standpoint, we were set up for disappointment with how interest rates failed to fall as promised. But a 6 to 7 percent rate environment is good. We just have to adjust to this new mentality.”
Discussing the challenge many homeowners face with insurance he said, “It’s getting better, but the cost of home ownership has increased dramatically, especially for folks who want to purchase in the lower end of the market. Our market follows the macro economy, and when the rest of the country sees good economic growth, then we will start to see levels even out.” Inventory increased 35.7 percent to 5,695 properties in 2024 compared to 4,198 properties in 2023.
Finishing out the panel’s presentations was Budge Huskey who spoke about median closed prices. “We’ve experienced something unprecedented: over the last five years, median closed prices have increased 75 percent in Florida!”
He added, “Three years ago we started to see declining sales activity, but prices continued to rise. Keep in mind that inventory is up 15 percent nationally, while here it’s increased 35 percent. Prices will be under more pressure here than on the national level, and we are seeing this already as the number of price decreases increase monthly.” Median home prices have increased 84 percent to $610,000 from $332,000 in 2019 [pre pandemic]. However, they only increased 1.7 percent compared to 2023 ($600,000).
Once the individual presentations finished, moderator Adam Vellano asked the panelists a series of questions. Below are their answers.
What surprised you most in 2024?
Huskey: I’m surprised we did as well as we did considering all the challenges we faced last year.
Weeks: I’m impressed at the resiliency of prices. The cost of ownership in Southwest Florida is not fully reflected in today’s prices though, and there hasn’t been any movement to accommodate this problem.
Young: The spike in sales of homes over $2 million surprised me.
Hughes: In March of 2020 none of us saw the pandemic coming and how it would dramatically change our lives and the real estate industry. This year we faced many unforeseen challenges, and I think it’s remarkable how resilient our industry has become.
How did the hurricanes affect 2024?
Hughes: We essentially lost a month of activity in 2024, and yet still exceeded 2023 closed sales levels in the end. That’s impressive.
Young: REALTORS® had to scramble to find inspectors and appraisers so they could recover deals in the works. But it was really motivated by urgency from buyers and sellers wanting to move forward that made it happen.
Weeks: The storms created unease and this affected market psychology.
Huskey: It depended on where you were; residents on the water who had significant flooding during Hurricane Ian also saw flooding during the storms. But if you go a mile inland, it appears as if nothing was touched.
How do you see the condominium market performing into 2025?
Huskey: We are fortunate on this side of the state as we are not experiencing the level of problems to the degree being seen of the east coast. There are uncertainties with ownership costs given the new mandatory structural inspections and reserve laws. In many cases this will mean some condominiums may be torn down and replaced with more luxury condominiums.
Weeks: I worry about the spillover effect in the media. People in the U.S. are watching the news and it paints a dim picture on condominiums in Florida. But we are different from the east coast, which has significantly older condominiums than in the Naples area.
Hughes: In 2022, 50 percent of all sales were condos. In 2023 and 2024, it was 49 percent. But given the new laws, I suspect things may shift slightly more in 2025.
What are you recommending to a seller in this market?
Hughes: Ten to 15 years ago, price decreases happened out of season, but we saw a large number of price decreases in January. For sellers, it’s important to work with a REALTOR® who is knowledgeable and can help you price your home to sell. If you shoot high when you list it and think you’ll gradually lower the price, you may miss out on selling during season. Aspirational pricing may hurt you in the end.
How do you feel about activity vs. pricing?
Young: I have empathy for the buyer seeking affordability. You need a salary of $116,000 to afford a mortgage in America. Home sellers need to think about who the buyer is today. If the seller won’t reduce the price during negotiations, then they will lose out to other sellers that will. Historically, 45 days is when the first price drop occurs, but this needs to change.
Weeks: As a seller, you want to work with a real estate professional who understands the data and what’s happening out there. At the end of the day, you need to be informed. Look at real comps and where the prices are. If you’re not seeing activity on your property, then the price is likely the issue. Plus, consider the problem you may face if you aren’t open to dropping the price. You’ll have to carry the cost of owning and maintaining the property. Are you willing to let a deal slip because of 5 percent?
Huskey: Unless demand shifts quickly, we are entering a “buyer’s market”. Sellers need to price appropriately.
What do you see for 2025?
Huskey: I’m optimistic for 2025. Uncertainty is the clincher – especially in a market where buyers purchase on sentiment. Regardless, if uncertainty lingers, we may see slow sales.
Weeks: We will likely follow historic trends. However, two big things – aggressive trade talks and inflation – will determine on a macro level what happens in America. If we struggle in these areas, more challenges will follow.
Young: I believe we will see steady growth, but it’s up to those on the front line, the REALTORS®, to educate their clients and quell some of the uncertainties.
Hughes: Just because the year changed doesn’t mean the market has changed. We have more inventory which is creating a lack of urgency in buyers. Three years ago, buyers had to decide fast. The past two years buyers had to worry about a lot of things: insurance, interest rates, inflation, hurricanes, an election. But most of those things have passed. In 2025, we will just have to rely on our resiliency and roll with it.
If you are considering buying or selling your home, look to a Naples REALTOR® who can provide an accurate market comparison and give you expert advice on how to capitalize on today’s market conditions. A REALTOR® can ensure your next purchase or sale in the Naples area is a success. Search for your dream home and find a Naples REALTOR® on Naplesarea.com.
The Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®) is an established organization (Chartered in 1949) whose members have a positive and progressive impact on the Naples community. NABOR® is a local board of REALTORS® and real estate professionals with a legacy of over 60 years serving 8,500 plus members. NABOR® is a member of Florida Realtors® and the National Association of REALTORS®, which is the largest association in the United States with more than 1.4 million members and over 1,200 local boards of REALTORS® nationwide. NABOR® is structured to provide programs and services to its membership through various committees and the NABOR® Board of Directors, all of whom are non-paid volunteers.
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